Tuesday, March 19, 2013

The Dunning-Kruger-Madoff Effect - Krugman

All of which raises an interesting question: why don't people like Hinderaker who have been wrong about everything for years and years — demonstrably wrong, in ways that would have lost anyone who believed them a lot of money — ever reconsider? Shouldn't the thought at least enter their minds that maybe economic analysis is not their strong point? Shouldn't they at least entertain the notion that they are talking to the wrong "experts"?
So why doesn't this happen? Part of it, surely, is the Dunning-Kruger effect: the truly incompetent are too incompetent to realize that they're incompetent. Part of it, also, is the Madoff "affinity fraud" effect: people trust someone they perceive as part of their tribe — in this case the tribe of liberal-haters — and are blind to evidence that they are being taken for a ride.
Conservatives are particularly vulnerable to the grift, be it by the 700 Club or SarahPac.  Blind trust in those who appear to be on their team, or tribe, affinity group, whatever you want to call it.  It's weird.

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