Edwards To Drop Bid Today; Rudy Slinks Off

TPM had the news. Thus ends the Reilly Household schism: we'll both be voting Obama on February 5th.

I've posted before on wavering between Obama and Edwards before settling on Edwards. I'm a policy guy, and I ultimately chose Edwards because we were 100% on the same page when it comes issues like poverty and health care. My one concern about Edwards was whether he could close the deal - he's got the talent, and his heart is in the right spot, but he's missing that intangible quality that creates a movement. I would love to see John Edwards as Attorney General in an Obama administration . . . even as Vice President.

Obama, on the other hand . . . radiates that charisma of which mass movements are formed. I think its vital for him to hone his message better, but the delivery can't be beat. Obama is the anti-Kerry.

In other news, the creepy, petty tyrant and former Mayor of 9/11 Rudy Giuliani also dropped out of the race today. I'm hoping he crawls into a hole and disappears for a few years, and takes his execrable foreign policy advisor Norman Podhoretz with him.

New Hampshire Predictions and Hopes

Predictions:
Democrats
Edwards will do better than expected. Hillary will do worse than expected. Obama will win as expected. My Hope: Edwards ties or beats Hillary.

Republicans
Ron Paul will do better than expected, beating both Thompson and Captain Combover, Rudy 9-11-ani. Huckabee will beat expectations. No prediction on the Mitt/McCain order.

Post NH Prediction AND Hope:
The Democratic race becomes a two-candidate race between Edwards and Obama. As the myth of Hillary's inevitability is smashed, her supporters (mostly lured by her supposed invincibility) defect in droves. Remaining are the 20-30 people who are actually passionate about a Hillary presidency.

And just MAYBE . . . that the media will be forced to take seriously campaigns by non-corporate candidates.

NEXT DAY UPDATE: And that's why I don't get paid to predict these things.

The Toxic Role of the Vacuous Beltway Media

Glenn Greenwald has a great post on the way the establishment media corrupts the discourse. Of note among many transgressions is the under-reporting on John Edwards, who has been largely ignored by this crowd, despite . . . well anything he does. Unless he gets a haircut. That, of course, is hard news.

I'll update this when I get a chance, just wanted to get a quick post in. But look at the dramatic improvement in Edwards national numbers over the past 11 days . . . and yet, the dominant narrative is about a Clinton-Obama race. The narrative is false; Hillary WILL NOT be the Democratic nominee. The ultimate choice will be between Obama and Edwards. I like 'em both, but Edwards is the more progressive candidate.

Ultimately, the ONLY way we can lose the election is by nominating Clinton. And I don't think itwill happen.

Edwards for President

While I still think Obama could make a good president, over the past several months I've found myself gravitating to Edwards more and more. This diary speaks to some of the reasons why.

At base, I strongly identify with Edwards' populist message; there really are two Americas, and the gulf between them has widened to a sickening, seemingly bottomless crevasse. I don't want a candidate who thinks he/she can work better with the Republicans. I want a candidate that will fight!

And that candidate is John Edwards. I've been arguing to friends for the past couple of months that as the economy continues o weaken, as the fraud and chicanery in the financial markets unravels, that Edwards populist message will become more and more attractive. To an extent, it's happening already, but will only accelerate through November. In any event, two months ago I was arguing for Edwards to make a strong showing in Iowa.

My prediction and hope is (1) Edwards, (2) Obama, (3) Clinton.

As for the GOP clownfest, I have no predictions, except to say that the lumbering Fred Thompson will finally give it up, and Rudy will get shellacked.

John Edwards Poll Numbers

This sentence from drunken hobo Joe Klein sparked a thought:

The fact that the two leading Democratic candidates, Obama and Clinton, are
essentially running moderate campaigns--and that John Edwards' populism hasn't exactly caught fire--is an indication that the Democratic base isn't nearly as partisan as the Post seems to think it is.

I've said before and I'll say again, I think John Edwards platform and rhetoric is dead on. Edwards, I fear, hasn't had that special something, charisma, magnetism, je ne sais quoi, whatever, to make it resonate.

But maybe it's just the timing. Watch the housing market. We are headed into a recession in this country, though most people have no idea it's coming. The economic situation is going to get steadily worse between now and the election . . . and as it does, Edwards' star might start to shine a little brighter.

And apropos of nothing, my prediction is, Hillary will not be the Democratic candidate in 2008.

FIRED UP!

Barack Obama was here in Brooklyn last night, electrifying a large audience at the Brooklyn Bridge Marriott.

I've long been undecided in the Democratic primary, with the sole caveat that I do not want Hillary as our candidate. Last night pulled me a long ways toward the Obama camp. Barack is sounding more and more like a true progressive candidate, and spoke candidly about his views.

The speech was powerful, the crowd was young and hung on every word, and applause was frequent and enthusiastic. Obama's stump speech wound up with a colorful story and a call and response that definitely left the crowd Fired up! and hungry for more.

I understand that many people were not able to get in, and I feel for those that didn't make it. I haven't yet watched Obama's Daily Show appearance from before the rally, but it is online here.

Photos via Brandon Kings and Kyllo's Flickr (by way of Gothamist).

Barack in Brooklyn

Barack Obama will be here in Brooklyn Wednesday night. We're still undecided in the primary, except to say . . . not Hillary.

The best way to get your impressions is first hand, so we'll be on hand to see what the man has to say. I'm looking forward to hearing Edwards speak as well when he visits. Edwards Two Americas platform and populism resonates with me; now that he's been tagged as the Angry One by the media, I like him even better.

For now, Obama, Wednesday night, tickets $25.
Barack in Brooklyn Information

Gore/Obama '08!

Jim Sleeper at TPM Cafe ponders a Gore-Obama ticket for the Dems in '08. As I've already stated, this is my dream ticket for the party next year.

Assault On Reason

Al Gore has a new book coming out, The Assault on Reason, which is excerpted in Time. It's a compelling piece. At the heart of this problem is the runaway de-regulation of media companies, starting with the repeal of the fairness doctrine under Reagan.

Somewhere along the line, we've forgotten that all of the broadcast assets in this country are supposed to serve the public good. A good place to start fixing the problems Gore addresses would be re-instate limits on concentration of ownership (one of the very few things I've ever agreed with William Safire on). (In a later post, I'll address some of the changes we need to make to our campaign finance and election laws.)

While Gore says he isn't running again, after seeing An Inconvenient Truth and reading this piece, I truly hope he will. When I look back on the aftermath of 9/11, and all the disastrous policy decisions and downright criminal behavior by the Bush administration (torture, illegal wiretapping, Iraq, hamstringing the EPA, handing the keys to the Education Dept. to lenders, tax giveaways to oil and gas companies, etc. etc. etc.) . . .

Imagine if Gore had been President? A man who believes in public service, who believes that government can solve problems . . . a man with an actual brain in his head. I could almost weep for what might have been.

My dream ticket: Gore/Obama '08!

Bring back rational thought to the White House. Please.
H/t Atrios.